Carter Page is or perhaps is not an advisor to Donald Trump on foreign policy. Both have been said by people on Trump’s campaign staff. He has written favorably (if oddly) on Russia and gave a speech in Moscow earlier this year. He was not willing to share the content of that speech or much about his visit with the press. Read More
Comparison of open-source photos of Iranian and North Korean missiles suggests that the two are not collaborating on missile designs. Top graphic from here. Read More
It’s one thing to act as one thinks a great power would act. It’s another to be acknowledged as a great power. Vladimir Putin thinks a great power would freely take a bite of a neighbor’s land, intervene on behalf of a client, and flaunt its cruise missiles. But the real prize is negotiating with other great powers over spheres of interest. The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.
But the great powers, particularly the United States, are not cooperating. Read More
From April: South Korea considers its nuclear options. From last week: South Korea says it will flatten Pyongyang if North Korea moves toward using nukes. The point of threatening Pyongyang is to threaten Kim Jong Un directly. The downside is that it could motivate North Korea toward building a doomsday machine. The reality is that any war on the Korean Peninsula would be extremely damaging to both sides. Read More
This morning in North Korea, last night here, North Korea tested another nuclear device underground at its test site. The yield appears to be larger than the last test, but determining that depends on how deep the test was and other factors that we don’t know. US planes are flying in the area to collect isotopes that may have been released in the test, but the North Koreans have been very skilled at containing their tests, so that may not give much information. Read More