Links – November 21, 2016

How much of a danger is a Donald Trump presidency to the United States? We simply don’t know. Trump has lied and contradicted himself. A few themes can be derived from what he has said, but he has also praised unpredictability as a virtue. The appointments he has announced so far give no confidence that the worst scenarios envisioned for his presidency won’t be realized. It is possible that his presidency will be merely chaos and division; here is what I consider a better-case scenario. But we must think about the worst-case scenarios, too, because they will be extremely damaging and very difficult to recover from. For that reason, you will see more of them here than the better cases, until I see additional reasons that up their probabilities.

Duck of Minerva is a good blog to follow for thinking out the probabilities and facing possible scenarios.

Profile of Michael Flynn and the National Security Advisor’s job.

Profile of Stephen Bannon and his career with the alt-Right, who could also be called the NeoNazi party in the United States. Here’s my Twitter thread about Bannon’s admiration for Lenin.

How to get Congress to investigate Russia’s role in the election.

This is not normal. A list of not-normal things about Trump’s actions from November 15. There are more since.

Trump and the stock market.

Long read: How Trump’s financial conflicts of interest may affect his presidency.

George Takei: They interned my family. Don’t let them do it to Muslims.

A good explainer on how Trump can get the Syrian civil war wrong.

We really don’t know what Russia is likely to do, nor what Trump is likely to do in foreign relations. Here’s some speculation about the Baltic States.

Ericka Chenoweth is a very knowledgeable scholar of nonviolent resistance. The demonstrations against Trump so far have been emotional and relatively undirected. That’s fine to show that many of us have objections to what he proposes. But if more demonstrations are needed, they must be much more strategized. Chenoweth is a good guide to how to do that. Two by her:

When does protest actually work?

How can we know when popular movements are winning?

People are starting to organize at the Chicago Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR).


Not-Trump News (Almost)

Russia recently withdrew from membership in the International Criminal Court. Here’s why: The court found Russia guilty of aggression and occupation of Crimea. That’s an important finding for future relations with Russia. That should make it much more difficult for a Trump administration to recognize that occupation as legitimate.

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