Estimating North Korea’s Nukes

David Albright offers an estimate of North Korea’s nuclear weapons that is not too far from mine. As he notes, any estimates have uncertainties upon uncertainties.

President Donald Trump’s bluster at North Korea has died down, but it could start up again at any time. Since North Korea’s nuclear weapons, or the threat of them, figure in the situation, we now need the best estimates possible.

Although Albright’s estimates are only slightly higher than mine, there are other considerations that I took into account implicitly. This post makes those considerations explicit. Read More

North Korea Links – April 20, 2017

Why there are no good options on North Korea’s nuclear program.

Interview with Joel Wit, who has been watching North Korea for a couple of decades and more. Also by Wit: How to defuse the crisis with North Korea. Hint: Bluster and bluff won’t do it.

History: How Washington hard-liners helped to create the North Korean crisis.

The hidden messages in North Korea’s military parade.

What missiles does North Korea have?

The US isn’t hacking North Korea’s missile launches. Rocket science is hard.

Take a 3D tour of North Korea’s nuclear test tunnels. Top photo is a screen grab from the tour.

The White House’s misleading statements about Trump’s ‘armada’ heading to Korea.

Twitter thread by Ilan Goldenberg on how things might have gotten messed up with the carrier group.

 

Links – January 25, 2017

Donald Trump likes and dislikes nuclear weapons, according to what he has said, as slippery as anything else he says. Here are excerpts from testimony to Congress by his Secretaries of State and Defense on the subject. Their views are fairly conventional. We don’t know how much they will influence him.

Why Trump’s bluffing won’t be effective on nuclear weapons issues. What the Trump administration needs to do to get up to speed on those issues. Read More