Comparison of open-source photos of Iranian and North Korean missiles suggests that the two are not collaborating on missile designs. Top graphic from here. Read More
It appears that a number of people who might be expected to understand how diplomacy and international agreements work have become confused on some matters. They seem to be calling for complete transparency in the dealings of the IAEA with Iran and the P5+1. To be sure, there may be differences in how lines should be drawn, but radical transparency is new in diplomatic relations. Read More
Scary headline: U.S., others agreed to ‘secret’ exemptions for Iran after nuclear deal. But no.
The report on which that article is based is here. It is from the Institute for Science and International Security, which has been beating the drum for airtight and public inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Both technical and diplomatic issues are in play. Read More
It’s a day ending in y, so it’s a good day to hype dirty bombs.
But first, let’s look at some facts. Read More
The Volunteer Verification Corps in action. As soon as I saw the footage of the North Korean missile test, I knew the crew at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies would be on it. Here’s their analysis. Top photo is from that analysis. It also looks like the test was from a barge, not a submarine. North Korea presents a perfectly successful hydrogen bomb test to the world, then a marvelous missile test. Neither is quite what North Korea wants us to think. That means we have time to work on diplomacy. My op-ed in the Globe and Mail. Read More
Something that critics of the Iran nuclear agreement and this week’s report on Iran’s nuclear weapons work leave out is all the sources of intelligence beyond the IAEA. This week’s IAEA report agrees pretty closely with the 2007 US intelligence estimate. Here’s a good summary of takeaways. And, David Sanger, “fuel compression test”? Really? I always thought that referred to gasoline properties… Read More
The IAEA report on the possible military dimensions (PMD) of Iran’s nuclear program is out. It says that Iran had a coordinated program for investigating the development of a nuclear bomb until 2003, scattered experiments without a program structure until 2009, and nothing after 2009.
Here are my early observations. Read More