A commenter at Lawyers, Guns & Money pointed me toward this McKay Coppins article on European concerns about another Trump presidency because it contains a section on Narva, Estonia. In the article, Coppins hopscotches across Europe to learn what those concerns are. It is a recipe for superficiality.
On Narva, Coppins repeats a slice of propaganda that Russia has been using at least since 1991.
The city of Narva sits on Estonia’s eastern border, separated from Russia by a river and a heavily guarded bridge. Some experts believe that if World War III breaks out in the coming years, this is where it will begin. The city is overwhelmingly populated by ethnic Russians, many of whom don’t speak Estonian and are therefore ineligible for citizenship. Western officials fear Putin might try to use the same playbook he developed in Crimea—enlisting Russian separatists to stoke unrest and create a pretense for annexing the city. Such a move would effectively dare the West to go to war with a nuclear power over a small Estonian city, or else watch the credibility of their vaunted alliance collapse. NATO calls this “the Narva scenario.” [emphasis added]
Conveniently, Coppins does not quote specific people. I would hope that this is because he couldn’t find any serious people holding these beliefs. Historical analogies are tempting to people who have little factual knowledge.
The city is overwhelmingly populated by ethnic Russians. It’s time to retire the phrase “ethnic Russians” in this context. People descended from Russian settlers, perhaps. Primary Russian speakers? Most of these families have lived for several generations in Estonia. Probably more of them understand Estonian than are willing to say they do. Russians were brought into northeastern Estonia, Ida-Virumaa County, during the Soviet times to run the uranium-refining plant at Sillamäe and the oil shale mines. Estonia’s oil shale is rich enough in carbon to be burned directly and has been used like coal. It is now being phased out because of its high carbon dioxide and solid waste production.
Many of whom don’t speak Estonian. There has long been a Russian presence in Estonia. The composer Peter Tchiakovsky summered in Haapsalu and Sillamäe, which at that time was an upperclass resort. The language situation has been politicized since Soviet times. In surveys, Estonians would not admit they spoke Russian. Conversely, it would not be surprising if today those primary Russian speakers refused to admit they speak Estonian. I spent some time with an Ida-Virumaa County official who spoke only Russian until a couple of days in, when some Estonian slipped into the conversation. It’s hard to avoid learning the majority language of the country you live in.
And are therefore ineligible for citizenship. Many of the primary Russian speakers are older people who are content to live in their limited communities. Estonia requires some ability in Estonian for their citizenship test. I’ve been told that I probably speak enough Estonian to pass. I do not consider myself highly fluent in that language.
Here’s an article from someone who knows something about Estonia. The language situation is complicated, difficult, and political. An underlying concern is Russia’s use of the situation to claim intervention on behalf of the Russian speakers. But as the pensioners die off, according to this article, the younger people are less inclined toward Russia. The language in which education is conducted plays a large role.
That makes McCoppins’s idea of a Crimean-type scenario less plausible. Additionally, there are no Russian military bases in Estonia, as there are in Crimea. The people of Narva know very well that incomes in Ivangorod, just across the border, are about half of what they take in, and that Ivangorod’s water system goes out regularly. There is a small unemployed and disaffected group in Narva, but the danger is more from Russia than from them.
Coppins asks the Estonian border guard “if he thought the day would ever come when he saw Russian tanks rolling across the bridge.” I would guess that when Russian tanks appear on the Ivangorod side, the bridge will be no more. Most of the Estonian border with Russia is Lakes Peipus and Pskov and the Narva River, poorly suited to a tank attack. It’s seemed to me that if a Crimean scenario was possible anywhere in the Baltics, it would be in Latvia. Latvia has more Russian speakers than Estonia or Lithuania, and the border with Russia is more suited to tank warfare.
The idea of subverting Russian speakers in Ida-Virumaa County has been around since the 1990s. It’s closely related to Russian claims to represent Russian speakers everywhere and is part of their program to keep everyone on edge. It’s always been more plausible to people without much knowledge of the area.
Top photo: The bridge across the Narva River from the Estonian side. Geonarva, CC BY-SA 4.0
Cross-posted to Lawyers, Guns & Money
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