Ukrainian warnings are becoming more urgent that the Russians plan an incident at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The warnings have been coming for about a week. The latest is that explosives have been rigged on top of two of the reactor buildings to simulate Ukrainian shelling of the plant. Other accusations are that the plant or the pond that holds the cooling water for the plant are mined.

The Russians are countering with accusations of their own.

Rafael Mariano Grossi, the Director General of the IAEA, has visited the plant recently, and two IAEA staff have been stationed at the plant. He says that the parts of the plant he has seen are not mined, but he has not seen everything he wants to see. He plans to go back in the near future.

Russia controls one side of the Kakhovka Dam at the end of the Kakhovka Reservoir on the Dneiper River. Back when Russia was withdrawing to the east side of the Dneiper, they exploded a couple of mines at the dam.

The reservoir provides drinking water to many Ukrainians and is the main water supply to Crimea, where they have been filling reservoirs. It is also the only water supply to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The reactors at ZNPP are shut down, but they still need cooling water. The intake pipe extends some way into the reservoir. A large supply of cooling water will be essential if the reactors are to be started up again.

Since November, the Russians have been draining the reservoir. Geoff Brumfiel of NPR has the story.

The Russians are…shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant?

This does not make sense, but neither do any of Russia’s actions toward the plant. They took the plant by shelling it and caused a fire that destroyed one of the administrative buildings. They are rumored to have mined the plant. The Ukrainian operators are effectively prisoners. The Russians regularly shell the nearby city where the operators’ families live.

There are a couple of possibilities, not mutually exclusive, for why the Russians took the plant. First, it would be consistent with a plan to grab all of Ukraine and install a puppet government, which seems to have been the initial Russian intent. Having control of power plants would be a good thing. The Russians seized Zaporizhzhia early, along with a couple of hydroelectric power plants. Second, it is a relatively safe military base because the Ukrainians have the good sense not to shell a nuclear plant. The district in which it is located, Zaporizhzhia, is one of the ones that Russia has said it plans to incorporate as it did Donetsk and Luhansk.

A few days ago, A Russian statement claimed that electricity would be sold to Ukrainians from the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhe nuclear power plant. If Ukrainians didn’t take up that offer, the electricity would go to Russia. Either way, Russia wins.

Not so fast. Russia does not share an electrical grid with Ukraine, so the electricity from Zaporizhzhe can’t be sent there.

The reasons for occupation of the plant are a bit of a mystery. It was taken early in Russia’s campaign against Ukraine, so perhaps it was part of the plan to take control of Ukraine with the help of internal collaborators in the first three days.

The overall occupation didn’t work, but the Russians still hold Zaporizhzhe, so they are trying to make the best of it.

Cross-posted to Lawyers, Guns & Money