nuclear testing

The Nuclear Testing Standoff

Posted on by Cheryl Rofer

A quick update on possible preparations for nuclear testing and suspicions of preparations for nuclear testing. Previous post here.

Jeffrey Lewis and the folks at CNS supplied CNN with interpretations of overhead photos showing activity at Russian, Chinese, and US test sites. Given that much of the activity at the US test site in Nevada has to do with an enormous expansion of subcritical underground tests, one might expect similar things are happening at the other two. Lewis notes some of the differences in activity supporting the two kinds of tests.

The Secretary of Energy, in a tweet I can’t find, was quoted as saying that the US has no plans for a nuclear explosive test. Update: It was NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby. Thanks to Chris Casilli!

Now a statement from Mikhail Kovalchuk, President of Kurchatov Institute National Research Center, says that Russia also is not planning for a nuclear explosive test, but if the US tests, Russia will test too, to preserve deterrence.

If the US were to test, the rationale would likely be that a test is needed to validate the substitutions of updated components into stockpile weapons or that a slight reconfiguration to meet military needs, not a new weapon, needs to be tested. The deterrence part would go unspoken. Russia has gone in the opposite direction.

It certainly looks like everyone is daring everyone else to go first. Back in 1958 through 1961, there was a moratorium between the US and Russia (starting around 4:00) and then a resumption of tests around 4:30 in Isao Hashimoto’s graphic depiction of all the world’s nuclear explosions.

 If one country breaks the moratorium, it’s likely to look like that this time around, with China joining in.

In line with my other recent writing, would anyone like to venture a gendered interpretation?

Cross-posted to Lawyers, Guns & Money

NNSA Underground

Posted on by Cheryl Rofer

Warning: Very wonky post, link, and subject matter

Since the United States signed, but did not ratify, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, it has held to a moratorium on nuclear explosive tests. The alternative to making sure nuclear weapons work and doing research to extend the understanding of their processes is a massive program called Stockpile Stewardship.

One of the activities under Stockpile Stewardship is investigate the properties of plutonium under the conditions just preceding a nuclear explosion. Plutonium is rapidly compressed by shaped explosives into a critical mass. What happens during that compression? Atoms are rearranged and smushed closer together. But plutonium has several solid phases that may affect that rearrangement.

The explanations in this interview are pretty good, but they dance around a lot of classification.

The facility is located far underground for physical and classification safety, but all that earth above provides shielding in case any of the subcritical experiments (no nuclear yield) transition to a hydronuclear experiment (with nuclear yield). We’re talking about amounts of energy that add only a tiny increment to the explosive or impact energy involved, not mushroom clouds. The CTBT specifies no nuclear yield, which is unverifiable, but a cudgel with which Republicans like to try to beat Russia with, as they did in the Trump administration.

Here’s the Pollux subcritical experiment, from 2012, to give you an idea of how innocuous an actual experiment can be. Setting one up, however, takes much more time.

I am a bit baffled by the size of what they’re building (football field), along with the need for two of something. The size might be explained by something like the Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility (DARHT) at Los Alamos, accompanied by perhaps other capabilities. The interview implies that something like this is being built.

Photo: August 30, 2006 – The Department’s Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully conducts a subcritical experiment, Unicorn, at 11:00 a.m. at the Nevada Test Site. 

Cross-posted to Lawyers, Guns, & Money

U-Be Spherules? Think Nuclear Weapons

Posted on by Cheryl Rofer

It’s always dangerous scientifically to decide on a conclusion and then look for supporting data. Tempting, certainly, and it’s not a bad way to start off an investigation. But you can’t get too attached to that conclusion. Chances are that you’ll find that someone else disproved it or that the data just don’t support it.

Avi Loeb, a theoretical physicist at Harvard, believes that ‘Oumuamua, an object that quickly transited the solar system from somewhere else in 2017, was an alien spacecraft. It’s generally agreed that ‘Oumuamua came from outside the solar system. Alien spacecraft, not so much.

But let’s look for data! Aha, in 2014, a meteor that had an orbit that could have come from outside the solar system fell in the ocean near Papua New Guinea! If fragments could be found, they might be analyzed.

Read More

Live-Tweeting The Trinity Weather Log

Posted on by Cheryl Rofer

The opera “Dr. Atomic” premieres at the Santa Fe Opera on Saturday, July 14. This will be its first performance so close to Los Alamos.

To commemorate the events of the opera, Nuclear Diner will live-tweet the weather reports for the Trinity test of the first nuclear device to be exploded. The weather reports were significant, because this time of year is monsoon season, and thunderstorms surrounded the test site.

The Twitter account is @NuclearDiner. The live-tweet starts at 12:30 am Mountain Daylight Time July 16. You don’t need to be registered on Twitter to see the tweets, and you can read them later.

The photo is from the Santa Fe Opera’s tweet stream, which contains a great many from their dress rehearsal.

Links – June 1, 2018

Posted on by Cheryl Rofer

Kim Jong Un doesn’t want American businesspeople running all over his country. He wants sanctions lifted. It’s always a bad idea not to understand what your negotiating partner wants. This article is from a few days ago, but it’s a good summary of Japan’s and China’s concerns.

Background on Kim Yong Chol, who delivered a letter from Kim Jong Un to Donald Trump. Kim Yong Chol is at center in the photo.

To nobody’s surprise, it looks like North Korea pulled everything that might have any technical use out of the Punggye-ri test site before they sealed the entrances to the tunnels. Photos of the destruction. Before and after overhead images. Siegfried Hecker thinks it is a positive move.

Comprehensive historical database of North Korea’s nuclear program from Hecker and his co-workers at CISAC. From that history, Hecker predicts it will take 15 years to denuclearize North Korea. The Institute for Science and International Security thinks it will take much less time, but they forego verification for the first 18 months. This is odd, because they are among the most vocal proponents of unlimited inspections in Iran.

Will toughness on Iran help Trump with North Korea? Here are three reasons to doubt it.

New book: The Future of Nuclear Power in China, by Mark Hibbs.

Long Read: We are going to need truth and reconciliation commissions, or something like them, after Trump. Here is one way that might be done.

 

What Might We Learn From North Korea’s Nuclear Test Site?

Posted on by Cheryl Rofer

Kim Jong Un announced that he would close North Korea’s nuclear test site. The Trump administration has greeted this announcement as part of its success in dealing with North Korea.

But North Korea may be doing less than Trump thinks. Read More

The North Korean Nuclear Test Site

Posted on by Cheryl Rofer

South Korea reports that Kim Jong Un has offered to close North Korea’s nuclear test site at Punggye-Ri in May. He says he will invite US and South Korean experts to examine the site before its demolition to see that it is still usable.

There have been very definite statements from experts outside North Korea that the site may or may not be usable. We don’t have access to the site, so we must surmise the situation from overhead photos, seismic traces, and experience at other test sites.

The yield of the most recent test was very large, perhaps 250 kilotons. It’s hard to estimate the yields of North Korean nuclear tests because we don’t know enough about the geology of the test site. It was followed by three seismic events of 4.6, 3.5, and 2.9 magnitude, which were not tests. Read More

Links – April 7, 2018

Posted on by Cheryl Rofer

Thinking out the North Korean standoff. From Robert Jervis and Mira Rapp-Hooper. A somewhat similar commentary from Jeffrey Lewis. South Korea’s recommendations for negotiations with North Korea. Bolton’s illegal war plan for North Korea. Verifying North Korea’s nuclear disarmament if we get that far.

Two similar analyses of activity around North Korea’s light water reactor: From 38 North and Institute for Science and International Security.  Read More

Links – March 4, 2018

Posted on by Cheryl Rofer

National Security Pros, It’s Time to Talk About Right-Wing Extremism.

Russia cancels talks with US. This just after Vladimir Putin displays his, um, nukes. Twelve-year-old boys are in charge of at least three nations’ nuclear arsenals.

Reactions to Putin’s “state of the nation” speech. More about the weapons mentioned in that speech. Yet more from Jeffrey Lewis. I take Putin’s claims with a grain of salt. Russia has claimed weapons that never went into production. I suspect significant exaggeration in his claims of testing. But we have to keep open the possibility that the weapons are real, if not yet ready for use. Read More

Links – December 11, 2017

Posted on by Cheryl Rofer

How a war with North Korea might play out. The price of war with North Korea. Excellent long-read backgrounder from Jeffrey Lewis on the history and strategy of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program (photo from here). More background, and denial by US of facts on the ground. The reentry vehicle on the North Korean ICBM.

According to this, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that North Korea is ready to talk. That’s from Friday. I haven’t seen any followup.

Bad Idea: Resuming Nuclear Testing.

The looming end of the INF Treaty.

Eerik-Niiles Kross: Estonia’s James Bond.

Comparing China’s situation to the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe in 1991.