Revising The History Of The 1990s

Revisionist history of the 1990s is in full swing. Here’s the latest.

New materials have surfaced that support my preferred point of view! Let me give you a selection! The article gives the impression that reams of newly declassified documents support the idea that, in this telling, the United States bent over backward to avoid offending Russia during the 1990s. I don’t think that the assembled quotes actually tell that story, especially since references are spotty. The article gives little context for the quotes.

The documents relating to diplomacy over time in an urgent situation will contain a great many statements of a great many views. It is good for those views to be discussed in the formulation of policy, but what matters is what actually was done. What matters even more is where we are today.

Along with others, the author assumes that Ukraine’s retention of Soviet nuclear weapons would be a deterrent against Russia while Ukraine developed into today’s state. Another assumption is that the US and Europe could have offered security guarantees that would deter Russia. These assumptions have been refuted before. The context of the world situation in the 1990s is ignored. I’ll repeat some of that context here.

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New Warfighting Strategy Needed

Oppenheimer and other scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project recognized that atomic bombs would change warfighting. Many of them worked toward world government in response. Lewis Strauss and Edward Teller saw a future of more and bigger weapons. The film dramatizes this conflict.

But a third group wanted to work out how wars might be fought with theoe weapons. The dust jacket of my copy of Wizards of Armageddon says “For thirty years [publication date 1983] a small group inside the U.S. strategic community has devised the plans and shaped the policies on how to use the bomb.”

Some who would join that community began to think about strategy as soon as they heard of the dropping of the bombs on Japan. The principles of warfighting strategy with nuclear weapons are incredibly simple. Bernard Brodie enunciated them by 1946:

  • Wars would be too brief to allow adaptation
  • Defenses are useless
  • The most valuable targets are cities
  • A nation must be constantly prepared for war
  • A second strike could be as devastating as the first
  • Surprise becomes an unimportant element of warfare
  • Deterrence is the only use

Two more points that aged poorly but were influential early on:

  • Strategies would depend on how many atomic bombs a country held
  • Fissile materials were inherently in short supply

This was similar to Oppenheimer’s analysis, but the scientists focused on ways to control the fissile materials and agreements among nations. Brodie and others went in a different direction.

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Today in 1949: Nuclear War Becomes Possible

There was no need for a special strategy for using nuclear weapons in the spring and early summer of 1945. There was more thought than usual about choosing targets, but only a little more than for choosing the targets of firebombing. That was why the military machine ground on until President Harry S Truman halted the nuclear pipeline on August 10.

That changed almost exactly four years later, on August 29, 1949, when the Soviet Union tested its first nuclear device, a close duplicate of the device tested at Trinity Site. The scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project knew that that day would come, although it came faster than they expected, having been goosed along by stolen Manhattan Project documents. As the scientists expected, the Soviets reproduced much of their work, but having the plans for a device that had already been tested removed the fears of Stalin’s retribution for a failure.

With that explosion came the possibility of nuclear war. People were already preparing to develop nuclear strategy, having cut their strategic teeth on developing bombing plans for the Army Air Corps, which would become the Air Force in 1947. I plan to write about that history in the next posts.

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After The War

The film “Oppenheimer” skips from 1945 to 1954 with only one stop in between: a 1949 discussion of the results of airborne isotope collection that showed that the Soviets had tested a fission device. But a lot of other things happened in those nine years.

At the end of the war, the Manhattan Project was disbanded as a military project. J. Robert Oppenheimer and others left Los Alamos to return to their universities. The industrial base for building atom bomb remained, but it was not clear that Los Alamos would continue. Norris Bradbury became director. Having been a naval officer, Bradbury used his connections to arrange a series of tests, Operation Crossroads, at Bikini Atoll in 1946, to help justify a future for Los Alamos.

Two bills were introduced in Congress – the May-Johnson bill proposed a heavy military presence in the nuclear venture, and the McMahon bill proposed civilian control. The May-Johnson bill was vehemently opposed by and lobbied against by scientists. The McMahon bill was eventually passed, and the Atomic Energy Commission, the forerunner of today’s Department of Energy, was formed.

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Truman Establishes Sole Presidential Authority

The Harry Truman scene in “Oppenheimer” is accurate in spirit, although Truman made the “crybaby” remark later. The film sticks with the conventional telling of the decision to use the bombs, though, which is another narrative we need to jettison. At the same time, we must recognize Truman as the originator of a trope we now find natural, that only the President can authorize the use of nuclear weapons.

The dropping of the atomic bombs on Japan is presented as the result of deliberate decisions by a small group, with Truman the ultimate decider. centering on Truman. I’m working mostly from Alex Wellerstein’s accounts of the history. Here are some resources from Alex: perhaps the fullest academic statement of his findings; a more popular version via interview; a focus on Nagasaki; a podcast with transcript.

When Germany surrendered in May 1945, the Manhattan Project was nearing its goal. A month ear;lier, President Franklin Roosevelt died, and Truman became president. Before that, Truman had not been informed of the Manhattan Project. The goal of the Manhattan Project was to get a bomb before the Germans did. With Germany’s surrender, some of the scientists questioned the purpose of their work.

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Giving Up A Myth

It is time for arms controllers and nuclear abolitionists to retire the Oppenheimer/ Manhattan Project myth.

The Oppenheimer/ Manhattan Project myth tells us that a group of people can rapidly build something that has never been built before when under the pressure of fear during war. Physicists, all white men, did it all, with Oppenheimer the most brilliant and at the center of the story. Recent modifications have added a few women and minorities to the capable, and have included the victims, who were not earlier included in the myth.

It’s an origin myth. It tells us how things came to be the way they are. The myth is similar to Pandora’s Box, in which breaching a forbidden barrier unleashes evils upon the world. Thus the focus on Oppenheimer, who is conscious of what he is doing and who later may feel remorse and is punished, but unjustly, like Prometheus as in the title of the book on which the film “Oppenheimer” is based.

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Oppenheimer – Other Reactions

It’s early days, and we will continue to see reactions to “Oppenheimer.” My interest in the response whether any of it is likely to have a political effect on nuclear weapons.

Even before the film was released, some organizations provided lists of “what to look for” in the film. Those lists usually tilted toward the organizations’ agendas.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative provided reading that was less obviously tilted, and in 2020 Alex Wellerstein provided some useful basics.

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Nolan’s Narrative

[There are probably spoilers in this post. I don’t believe in such things, so I can’t be sure. If you are bothered by them, perhaps best not to read.]

Christopher Nolan has commented that he hopes the movie will spark a discussion of nuclear weapons. Many people, particularly those born since the late 20th century, believe that nuclear weapons are no longer a threat. For others, they are simply a part of our world, not something that can be changed.

But nuclear weapons are very relevant. Vladimir Putin and other Russians have made nuclear threats during Russia’s war against Ukraine. China is expanding its nuclear arsenal so that the nuclear standoff becomes a three-party problem, more difficult to solve than the Cold War two-party problem, which was not a walk in the park. International agreements to limit nuclear weapons are falling. Anticolonialism emphasizes the wrongs done during the development of nuclear weapons to states and communities of color. We need new ways to think about nuclear weapons and war, while a 19th-century war of conquest is in progress. We need new ways to think about the ongoing damages of an arms race, which were previously ignored.

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Oppenheimer – First Reactions

I may be the worst person in the world to write a movie review. The way I like to watch movies is by immersion, not being analytical. I am not versed in the language of film criticism. If I watch a movie several times, I can start to get that part of it, but I have seen “Oppenheimer” only once.

I have my own priors – I’ve lived in two of the film’s sets for significant periods of time and have interacted with people who knew Opperheimer and participated in the Manhattan Project. I have been indoctrinated into the Oppenheimer cult and was gratified to see E. O. Lawrence portrayed as one of the bad guys, along with, of course, Edward Teller. (Necessary note that the reference to a cult is a deliberate exaggeration.) I drove to the movie past the place where the bridge was where David Greenglass handed off blueprints to a Soviet handler. I sat with two former Lab colleagues t the theater. Later today I drive to Los Alamos to attend a memorial service for a friend at Fuller Lodge.

There are several ways I could go about this, but I think I’ll start with random thoughts about the movie, then, in later posts, move on to locating it in today’s culture. If you want standard film criticism, Abigail Nussbaum addresses the film and some of the criticisms of the criticisms. I mostly agree with her.

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Two Mavericks

Edward Teller and Seth Neddermeyer both brought unconventional ideas to the Manhattan Project. One might have tanked the project had Robert Oppenheimer not kept him on a short leash. The other saved the project.

Teller was obsessed with the “Super,” a bomb that relied on hydrogen fusion rather than uranium fission to release enormous amounts of energy. When the project needed his efforts to go in another direction, he refused. He ultimately took his ambition and resentment to damaging Oppenheimer in the 1954 hearing that you will hear more about as news of the film comes out. But you probably haven’t heard of Neddermeyer.

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